Looks Like Southern Texas/Deep State Texas Stands a Good chance of Tornadoes



Rich surface dew points from about 69-73 F in conjunction with pockets of modest boundary-layer heating will support a broad plume of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE amid steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km. While light winds below 700 mb will limit effective SRH, substantial veering of the wind profile with height along with pronounced speed shear through the mid/upper-levels will foster an elongated hodograph favorable for splitting supercells. This setup should support potential for a couple strongly rotating supercells  may yield very large hail, resulting in a significant area delineation. The small SRH, weak MLCIN, and progressive/anafrontal nature of the front suggest that a messy mode with a mix of clusters and embedded HP supercells may ultimately evolve southeast this afternoon and evening. The best chance for large hail, severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will exist with any supercell that can be sustained just ahead of the front, mainly into Deep South TX this evening.

Source: Storm Prediction Center Apr 3, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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