Storm Prediction Center Mar 19, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook #TornadoRisk Friday March 20🌪️ 

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020 Valid 201200Z – 211200Z …THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES… …SUMMARY… Isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing mainly wind damage may occur Friday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across portions of the Southeast states. …Synopsis… Moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft will be in place from the southern High Plains through the Great Lakes region and Northeast states early Friday morning. A compact shortwave trough and accompanying jet streak embedded within the southwesterly flow are forecast to progress northeastward through the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in the wake of the lead wave, moving eastward across Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes, and Quebec. Surface low attendant to this second shortwave will occlude throughout the period as it moves northeastward across Quebec. Farther south, a convectively enhanced shortwave will move northeastward across TX and the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South into the TN Valley. Both of these systems are expected to promote thunderstorm development and a Marginal risk for severe weather (discussed in more detail below). …Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast… Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from middle TN into the Upper OH Valley within the confluent low-level flow and broad forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. This area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to progress northeastward in step with the shortwave trough. As it does, it will become increasingly displaced from the higher low-level moisture and instability. As such, a diminishing trend in both coverage and intensity appears likely. However, given the strong low/mid-level flow (i.e. 850mb winds over 45 kt and 500mb winds over 90 kt) bowing line segments capable of isolated damaging wind gusts are still possible. Additional thunderstorm development is possible along the cold front as it moves across the Northeast states late Friday afternoon. Instability will be weak but very strong deep-layer shear could still result in shallow bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Given the strength of the low-level flow, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, although the veering of the low-level flow and linear nature of the convective mode will temper the overall potential. …East/Southeast TX into the Southeast… Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over portions of the central into east/southeast TX early Friday morning. This activity is expected to gradually move eastward through the Lower MS Valley and into northern/central MS and AL throughout the day. Instability will be limited with much of the early period activity but limited diurnal heating across southern LA and MS/AL will likely result in at least modest instability ahead of the storms by the early afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak but deep-layer flow will remain strong, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms along the outflow. Storms may have difficulty staying ahead of the outflow, which will limit storm longevity and the overall severe potential. Even so, a few instance of severe hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible.

Source: Storm Prediction Center Mar 19, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Got the Lock Down Blues (inspired by #WuhanVirusMadeinChina)

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Anointing of the Sick/Last Rites.The Mercy of Christ

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Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 54

Source: Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern Oklahoma
     West Central Texas

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight
     CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to
       2.5 inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Scattered intense thunderstorms are expected to develop
   this afternoon and spread across the watch area through the evening.
    Large hail and damaging winds will occur with the strongest cells. 
   Through the evening, parameters will become favorable for a few
   tornadoes as well.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 30 miles south of Ardmore OK to 10
   miles west southwest of Big Spring TX. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU4).