Ohio Valley into a portion of the northeast States…
An area of rain and thunderstorms developing within zone of
isentropic ascent on the cool side of a warm front and in
association with a low-amplitude shortwave trough, will move through
a portion of the Northeast States early in the day. In wake of this
activity surface dewpoints in the upper 60s will advect eastward
through the warm sector contributing to moderate instability
(1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) as the boundary layer warms during the
afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate at least a weak inversion
associated with the eastern extension of the elevated mixed layer.
However, storms will likely initiate along the stationary front as
well as lake breezes and spread southeast through the warm sector.
This region will remain within zone of moderate westerlies with
35-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of organized storms
including supercells and bowing line segments. Damaging wind and
large hail will be the main threats with this activity, but a couple
of tornadoes will also be possible through early evening.